Chapter Eleven. How to Predict the Orders an Ad Will Bring

“Newcomer” Adams’ first column insertion has been pulling about 20 days when the salesman for the publication calls for a repeat order in the next closing issue, deadline for which is the next day.

"Sorry, Bill, the ad doesn't look good. I need 150 or­ders but the tally sheet shows only 50. I just don't know how many more will come in."

"But you're missing the biggest issue of the year," says Bill. "The publisher promises a 30% circulation bonus without a rate increase. By the way, that 50-order figure doesn't sound bad. Let me call Jim Casey who's had a lot of experience with the way our magazine pulls, and get his views on the expected total of your ad."

About an hour later, Bill is back on the phone.

"I've got good news, Mr. Adams, that column of yours should pull 125 to 150 orders. Casey says so, and he's got dozens of records to prove it."

Adams repeats the insertion, and by the time it starts to pull, Casey's prediction for the first column is coming true.

Al Goodman, who runs a drug store, decides to take a flier in mail order with a dandruff medicine. Through a list broker, he tests names of buyers of a similar product. When the test has been pulling eight days, the broker calls and informs Al that the list owner will not accept any more orders from competitors during the next three months, as a "house" mailing is being planned on the list. Orders in by the end of the week (today) will be honored, however.

Al's dilemma is not unlike Adams'. "I'd like to use the balance of that 75 M names," he tells the broker, "but up to the minute, 70 orders have come in. At least 100 are needed to …"

The list broker cuts in. "Mr. Goodman, my suggestion is to sign up for the balance of the list at once. There's a pile of money waiting for you. The 100 orders you are praying for is going to turn out to be a whopping 150."

These two incidents based on actual cases highlight the importance of pull prediction. Neither the broker nor Casey were fortune tellers, but careful and diligent entries on the tally sheet (discussed in Chapter X) produced a statistical picture of media behavior, which experience con­firmed as a dependable guide in predicting pull. (Only a world debacle affecting national life, such as a declaration of war, would temporarily upset the picture. Tally sheets in the writer's possession show a drop of 50% to 80% in pull during the 60 days following Pearl Harbor.)

Let us see if we cannot work out the rule Casey and the list broker used to anticipate the final pull for the two operations. Below are reproduced actual mail order tally sheets for different types of media  (names blocked out):

Monthly Publication—Men's—80% to 100% Newsstand Circulation

The first entry is on October 25th for 6 orders, and the last on March 11th—the cumulative total, 201. This particular tally sheet was transcribed from a daily work sheet and after the first month's pulling, only the total weekly pull was recorded. Are there any ratios apparent at first glance? Look at November 23rd; total here is 100—approx­imately one-half of the final pull. November 23rd is just 30 days after the publication began to pull. We have our first multiple: 2. Double the number of orders received in 30 days to get the approximate final pull.

But 30 days may be too long to wait—closing dates approach and a decision whether to repeat or not has to be made. How about 15 days? Can a multiple be obtained here? The fifteenth day is November 8th, and the cumula­tive total is 48, approximately one quarter the eventual total. The next multiple then is 4, and the rule: to get the total pull, multiply fifteen pulling days by 4. Another tally page is given below.

After the first insertion, a variation may be observed if the copy is repeated too often. The multiples may drop to l½ for 30 days and 3 for 15 days. Incidentally, this may be a warning sign; give the publication a rest.

Monthly Publication—100% Subscription—Men's

Using the same method, we note that the final total, 1,249, is only slightly better than 1¼ times the 30-day total, 969. We therefore use the multiple l¼, and for 15 days, the multiple, 2.

Monthly Publication—Newsstand—Women's

Here again the rule seems to prevail. Double the 30-day pull and quadruple the 15-day total.

Monthly Publication—Largely Subscription—Women's

The 30-day total is 299 and the final, 451 or almost exactly l½ times. The 15-day total is 208, a little less than ½the final figure.

Weekly   Publication—National   Circulation—Principally Newsstand

The final total, 898, is approximately 5 times the 2-day total; 3 times the 3-day total and twice the 4-day fig­ure. These are the multiples many mail order people apply to get the final pull in such a publication.

All the above calculations are applicable to the East and West. The multiples may have to be corrected slightly for the central and midwest states.

Direct Mail

The record of the mailing shown on page 57 is for a national cross-section list with the entire mailing going into the post office the same day and the origin point, New York. (No multiples will be calculated for local or stag­gered mailing because of the many variables.)

The final figure 495 is approximately double 259, the 8-day pull. Our guide in determining direct mail pull is to double the orders received in 8 to 10 days.

Because third class matter (the classification most bulk mailings fall under) often has to give way to the pri­ority (first class) mail, especially during holiday seasons or heavy mailing periods, correction in the multiple may be necessary.

Inventory Planning Based on Expected Pull

The same tally sheets that enabled us to predict the eventual pull of an ad can also be used to plan stock. Let us assume that the initial testing project took in the fol­lowing media:

A. Monthly magazine (newsstand)
B. Weekly newspaper supplement
C. Monthly magazine (subscription)
D. Direct mail

By calculating the total pull for each operation ac­cording to the system shown, we know that the expected merchandise to be sold for:

A is 4 x 15 days
B is twice 4 days
C is twice 15 days
D is twice 8 to 10 days

We can now plan our purchases accordingly without freezing the limited capital in stock.

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